Analysis and Forecast of China's Future Mold Industry
2025-05-27
In the constantly developing information society and economic globalization, the main development trend of the die industry is that die products are developing towards larger, more precise, more complex, and more economical and rapid aspects. With the continuous improvement of product technology content, die production is developing towards informatization, digitalization, drawing-free, refinement, and automation; die enterprises are developing towards technology integration, sophisticated equipment, product branding, information management, and international operation.
I. Future Development Goals
Based on the national die output value of 60 billion yuan in 2005, and calculated according to the average annual growth rate of 12% to 15% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period and an average annual growth rate of about 10% during the 2010-2020 period, the total target is: According to the average annual growth rate of 12%, it is estimated to be 100 billion yuan in 2010 and about 260 billion yuan in 2020. According to the average annual growth rate of 15%, it is estimated to be 120 billion yuan in 2010 and about 310 billion yuan in 2020.
Through the efforts of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, China's die level will enter the ranks of advanced Asian levels by 2010. After another 10 years of efforts, by 2020, it will basically reach the international level, making China not only a major producer of dies, but also among the world's leading die manufacturing powers. Several specific goals for 2010:
(1) Die accuracy reaches ±0.001mm; die production cycle is shortened by about 30%.
(2) The CNC rate of machine tools and the application rate of CAD/CAM technology are doubled compared to the present.
(3) Backbone enterprises basically achieve information management and pass ISO9000 and other quality management system certifications.
(4) A significant increase in the proportion of high-level dies. The proportion of high-end dies with high technical content such as large, precise, and complex dies will increase from the current 30% to 40% in 2010 and more than 50% in 2020.
(5) The domestic market share of domestic dies will increase from less than 80% at present to over 85% in 2010 and over 90% in 2020.
(6) The goal is to export 1 billion US dollars worth of dies in 2010 and 25 to 30 billion US dollars in 2020.
(7) Expand the varieties of die standard parts, improve their precision, improve production concentration, and achieve large-scale production. The coverage rate of die standard parts will increase from the current 45% to 60% in 2010 and over 70% in 2020.
(8) The commercialization rate of dies will increase from the current 45% to 55% in 2010 and about 65% in 2020.
II. Key Development Products
1. Automotive body dies
Stamping dies account for more than 40% of the total number of dies. Automotive body dies are mainly used for automotive parts, and also include body dies for agricultural vehicles, engineering machinery, and agricultural machinery. They are highly representative in stamping dies, and most of the dies are large and medium-sized, complex in structure, and have high technical requirements. Especially for passenger car body dies, the requirements are even higher, and they can represent the level of stamping dies. China already has a certain technical foundation for this type of die, and it has been used for mid-range passenger cars, but the level is not high, and the capacity is insufficient. The current satisfaction rate is only about half. High-end passenger car body dies mainly rely on imports, costing several hundred million US dollars annually. The low level and insufficient capacity of automotive body dies, and the long production cycle have become a bottleneck in automotive development, greatly affecting vehicle development. In the future, high-end passenger car body dies will be the top priority. By 2010, we strive to achieve complete self-sufficiency in high-end passenger car and lower-level automotive body dies, and by 2020, except for a few particularly high-end cars, all automotive body dies should basically rely on domestic supply.
2. Precision stamping dies
Multi-station progressive dies and precision stamping dies represent the development direction of stamping dies, with extremely high precision and life requirements. They are mainly used for electronic information industry, automobiles, instrumentation, motors, electrical appliances, etc. China already has a considerable foundation for these two types of dies, and has introduced foreign technologies and equipment. Some enterprises' products have reached the world level, but most enterprises still have a large gap, and the total quantity is also in short supply, with a lot of imports. Precision dies for ultra-large-scale integrated circuits, lead frames with more than 100 leads and gaps below 0.2mm, precision miniature connectors with precision above 5mm, miniature motor cores below 1.6mm, and those for picture tubes and electron guns are the top priorities for development. Large multi-station progressive dies for automotive body parts and other large and medium-sized stamping parts should also be developed.
3. Large and precision plastic dies
Plastic dies account for nearly 40% of the total number of dies, and this proportion is still rising. Large injection molds for automobiles and home appliances, precision plastic packaging molds for integrated circuits, multi-layer, multi-cavity, multi-material, multi-color precision injection molds for the electronic information industry, machinery, and packaging, plastic profile extrusion molds for new building materials and water-saving agriculture, and pipe and nozzle molds, etc., although they already have a considerable technical foundation and are developing rapidly, the technical level is still significantly behind that of foreign countries, and the total quantity is also in short supply, with several hundred million US dollars imported annually. They should be developed during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period.
4. Main die standard parts
Currently, the main die standard parts with large production in China are mainly die frames, guide parts, push rods and tubes, and elastic elements, but the quality is poor, and the variety and scale are small. These products not only have a large domestic demand, but also have good export prospects, and should continue to be vigorously developed. There are currently no regular professional factories in China producing nitrogen cylinders and hot runner components, mainly relying on imports. The level should be improved on the existing basis, standards should be formed, and large-scale production should be organized.
5. Other high-tech dies
Among the die-casting dies, which account for nearly 8% of the total number of dies, large thin-walled precision die-casting dies have high technical content and high difficulty. Although magnesium alloy die-casting molds and vacuum die-casting molds are just starting, they have good development prospects and are representative. Meridian rubber tire molds are also a development direction, with the most difficult live mold technology. Some rapid molding technologies combined with rapid prototyping technology and corresponding rapid and economical molds have good development prospects. These high-tech dies should also be developed during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period.
III. Key Development Technologies
In today's booming high-tech development, to ensure the rapid development of the die industry, which belongs to the high-tech industry, many common technologies in the die industry must also be upgraded. New technologies should be continuously developed and promoted, and high-tech should be actively applied. The main measures are as follows:
(1) Develop software with independent intellectual property rights, suitable for China's national conditions, and with a high level of die design, processing, and die enterprise management, continuously improve the intelligence and integration of the software, and promote its application.
(2) Promote the application of high-speed and high-precision machining technologies and develop corresponding equipment. High-speed and high-precision machining includes high-speed and high-precision cutting, high-speed and high-precision electrical machining, and compound machining. In the next 15 years or so, China's machine tool industry should gradually provide the mold industry with equipment suitable for high-speed and high-precision mold machining. If possible, it is recommended to develop high-precision mold manufacturing equipment with independent intellectual property rights and an accuracy of 0.0001 mm.
(3) Further development, improvement, and application of new technologies for rapid prototyping and rapid economical mold manufacturing.
(4) Vigorously develop and promote information and digital technologies. For example, the research and development and promotion of reverse engineering, concurrent engineering, and agile manufacturing technologies; including the research and development of three-dimensional design and manufacturing technologies for large-scale progressive dies and high-precision and high-complexity advanced molds with high technological content; including the research and development of body mold digital design and manufacturing systems, such as stamping process design systems, mold surface design systems, forming analysis systems, mold structure design systems, mold CAM systems, and stamping expert consulting systems; integrated, flexible, and automated processing technologies and network virtual technologies for molds.
(5) New processes and technologies for mold manufacturing. Energy-saving and material-saving technologies for mold manufacturing, new technologies for mold heat treatment, surface finishing, and surface treatment.
(6) Research and development, serialization, and correct selection of high-performance mold materials.
IV. Measures and Policies
Molds are important basic equipment in manufacturing; they are "unparalleled efficiency amplifiers." Without high-level molds, there are no high-level industrial products. Therefore, mold technology has also become one of the important indicators to measure a country's product manufacturing level. Because of the importance of molds and their important position in the national economy, since the State Council issued the "Decision on Current Industrial Policy Points" in March 1998, the mold industry has been placed in a high position, and the state has also given some encouragement and support policies. With the support of the state, although China's mold output value is already the third in the world, the overall level is still far behind that of industrially developed countries. The mold industry in China is still an infant industry, with an annual trade deficit of over US$1 billion. With China's accession to the WTO, the export prospects of molds are getting better and better. China's mold industry needs to develop faster to adapt to the development of the situation. For the mold industry to develop faster, various positive factors need to be mobilized, and strong support from all aspects is needed. The support of government departments and their own efforts are the most important. The following are the measures and policy suggestions for the development of the mold industry:
(1) Formulate laws and regulations and issue corresponding policies to guide the direction of investment.
It is suggested to learn from Japan's experience in formulating and implementing several revitalization laws (revitalization measures) in the 1960s and 1970s, and to formulate our own laws and regulations for industries such as molds that need to be revitalized in China. In conjunction with the newly formulated laws and regulations, adopt government intervention and economic support policies, and issue corresponding policy measures to provide support in terms of finance, taxation, and technological transformation in the form of legislation.
Given that the net value-added rate of mold products is high, and the value-added tax burden of mold enterprises is twice the average level of other industries in the machinery industry, it is recommended to reduce the value-added tax burden of mold enterprises, or continue to implement the policy of "taxation first, then refund," or lower the value-added tax rate, for example, from 17% to 5%~10%.
Encourage investment in mold development. For example, investment funds for the construction of mold factories can be deducted from corporate income tax; import taxes on key equipment and raw materials and parts needed for mold production can be reduced or exempted to encourage the introduction of high-tech products.
(2) Accelerate institutional reforms and strive to adjust the industrial structure.
At present, the industrial structure of the mold industry is unreasonable. This is mainly reflected in the enterprise organization structure, product structure, technology structure, and import and export structure. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, active measures should be taken under the guidance of relevant policies to adjust the structure and make it gradually reasonable. For example, encourage specialized and commercialized production, encourage the production of large, precise, complex, and long-life molds and mold standard parts, encourage the separation of main and auxiliary businesses, and enable mold production to move from being subsidiary to independent.
(3) Market-oriented operation, gradually forming a regionally relatively complete mold production industrial chain.
During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, on the one hand, it is necessary to support and encourage places with conditions to build mold production agglomeration bases (or mold cities, mold parks) with a high level and large capacity. Through market-oriented operation, a regionally relatively complete mold production industrial chain will be gradually formed. On the other hand, it is suggested that with automotive body panel molds as the main service object, a regional automotive mold manufacturing network led by enterprises with existing large strength and high level should be formed through active guidance. The network is a corporate consortium, or strategic alliance, with a common technological platform and close cooperative relations. It can operate as a virtual enterprise and is a community of interests. If successful, it can be gradually promoted within the industry from 2010 to 2020.
(4) Actively cultivate "leading" enterprises.
Judging from the current domestic and international development situation, it is time to put "scale effect" on the agenda. Internationally, there are many mold enterprises with an output value exceeding US$100 million, and the largest mold enterprise has developed into a multinational group with an annual output value of US$4 billion (including molds and mold-related products). Domestically, there are already a number of enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 100 million yuan. These enterprises play a pivotal role in promoting the development of the mold industry. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, key "leading enterprises" should be selectively cultivated with the support of the state, focusing on development priorities. To this end, it is hoped that a small number of key mold projects can be included in the national plan, become national special projects, and receive preferential policies.
(5) Strengthen industry-university-research cooperation and promote technological development and technological breakthroughs in the mold industry.
It is suggested that relevant government departments establish a mold development fund to be used for the development, research, and innovation of common technologies in the mold industry, and to provide key support for "leading enterprises." Under the strong support of relevant national departments, industry-university-research cooperation should be strengthened to promote technological development and technological breakthroughs in the mold industry. Key industry-university-research units should be organized to cooperate and work together to strive for early results, more results, and to share the results together, and to industrialize the results to quickly improve the technological level of the industry.
The information is from the website of Guangdong Mold Industry Association.
(6) It is suggested to establish a national mold testing center.
With the continuous development of the mold industry, mold quality testing work has become increasingly urgent. However, China still does not have a national-level testing center. It is suggested to establish a national testing center.
(7) Strengthen mold specialization.
Promote the large-scale and mass production of mold standard parts, improve the coordination of supply and demand of mold standard parts, and promote the continuous improvement of the usage rate of mold standard parts and the continuous development of the industry.
(8) Strengthen personnel training and improve enterprise quality.
The shortage of talent has now become a major constraint on industry development. It is recommended to establish a three-tiered mold technology talent education and training network across the country, centered on certain industrial cities with a good foundation. Enterprises should also train their employees through various channels to improve their quality. It is recommended to establish a national mold technology training center aimed at training teachers and senior talents with national support. Actively introduce foreign intelligence.
It is necessary to actively cultivate a large mold market, strive to improve the management level of enterprises, and promote the improvement of varieties, quality, and scale of standard mold parts; gradually establish a mold research, design, talent training, and production system suitable for China's national conditions, not only to make China a major mold production country, but also to strive to make China gradually become a powerful mold production country.
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